Fri, May 29
Race 4
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 2:13 · 1.06m · Dirt · $134K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 B SUDD (EP, QSP 8)
- #8 GEWURZTRAMINER (E, QSP 6)
- #7 KING RUSSELL (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 VAMOS CARLITOS (EP, QSP 5)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 8, 3, 1, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$25.30
mean $24.57
Expected ROI
-86.6%
net $-5.20
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [8, 3, 1, 2] — hits 3.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $25 (mean $25; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
8, 3
B Contenders
1, 2, 4
C Value-edge longshots
5, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.3% | $21.16 | -88% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.8% | $28.60 | -83% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.3% | $26.09 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.9% | $29.89 | -79% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 11.3% | $28.81 | -81% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | AEGEWURZTRAMINER | 2.0-1 | 1.9-1 | 88.4 | 15% | 45% | ▼-40% |
| 3 | ASBEARINGS | 3.0-1 | 3.5-1 | 88.7 | 15% | 43% | ▼-21% |
| 1 | BPGLEN AIRY | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 86.4 | 15% | 43% | ▼-8% |
| 2 | BSARISTOTLE | 5.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 86.9 | 14% | 41% | ·-2% |
| 4 | BEPVAMOS CARLITOS | 10-1 | 11-1 | 85.3 | 11% | 35% | ▲+12% |
| 5 | CPDANCE SOME MO | 15-1 | 19-1 | 85.5 | 11% | 34% | ▲+18% |
| 7 | EPKING RUSSELL | 8.0-1 | 9.2-1 | 83.0 | 10% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 6 | CEPB SUDD | 20-1 | 33-1 | 82.0 | 9% | 28% | ▲+16% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.