John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 7

HELLACIOUS

G '22 · VIOLENCE × BUSY BEV

Trainer: TROIANI NICCOLO · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

70.4

Speed fig

25.2%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.18
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.15
  • Weight Change From Last +0.13
  • Trainer Meet Starts Log +0.13
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.56
  • Distance Change From Last -0.41
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.41
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.39
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.31

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-30 CD 6f Dirt 6 10.3 75 86 3p;7p upr;moved up
2026-03-20 TP 6f Dirt 3 3.0 73 81 Vie2w;no mtch;duel plc
2026-01-17 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 1.3 71 81 Ins;4p3/16;rallied btw
2025-12-17 TP 6f Dirt 5 6.0 73 82 Ins run to turn; hung
2025-11-13 AQU 6f Turf 2 4.0 80 83 Vied ins pair; ran on
2025-09-20 BAQ 1m Turf 9 16.3 68 80 Keen;3-2p trns;empty
2025-08-14 SAR 5.5f Turf 3 2.8 74 88 Chased 2p; mild kick
2025-07-18 MTH 6f Dirt 2 0.1 67 84 Bumped st; late bid