Fri, May 29
Race 6
Clm 30000n2l
Post: 3:18 · 1m · Dirt · $62K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 EPIC SUMMER (E, QSP 8)
- #3 NA PALI JOE (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 LANDING CRAFT (EP, QSP 6)
- #8 CANT STOP MUNNINGS (E, QSP 6)
- #13 CULPRIT (EP, QSP 6)
- #11 COMES A TIME (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 GRAY IS OKAY (EP, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 8, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$113.79
mean $113.00
Expected ROI
-54.2%
net $-3.25
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 8, 2] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $114 (mean $113; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1, 8
B Contenders
2, 13, 11
C Value-edge longshots
3, 7
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 2.5% | $29.75 | -78% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.7% | $68.99 | -69% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.7% | $29.75 | -80% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.4% | $64.62 | -69% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 9.0% | $64.03 | -71% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPLANDING CRAFT | 4.5-1 | 3.6-1 | 78.6 | 15% | 44% | ·-2% |
| 8 | AECANT STOP MUNNINGS | 3.5-1 | 3.4-1 | 78.5 | 14% | 40% | ▼-17% |
| 2 | BEEPIC SUMMER | 10-1 | 10-1 | 78.1 | 13% | 38% | ▲+14% |
| 13 | BEPCULPRIT | 3.0-1 | 2.4-1 | 78.2 | 13% | 37% | ▼-26% |
| 11 | BEPCOMES A TIME | 15-1 | 14-1 | 77.4 | 11% | 34% | ▲+18% |
| 6 | PPETOSKEY STONES | 6.0-1 | 6.4-1 | 74.3 | 11% | 32% | ·-4% |
| 3 | CEPNA PALI JOE | 12-1 | 16-1 | 73.2 | 9% | 29% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | PANOTHER MONARCH | 8.0-1 | 9.3-1 | 73.6 | 9% | 29% | ·+1% |
| 7 | CEPGRAY IS OKAY | 30-1 | 54-1 | 67.8 | 5% | 17% | ▲+9% |
| 4 | SCRETINGUS PINGUS | 8.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | SCRPFOOTPRINT | 4.0-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | SCRPSO SPECIAL | 20-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 12 | SCRELEONARDO | 30-1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Fri, May 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.