John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 11

MANDY'S MAN CAN

G '22 · PAYNTER × PENNY

Trainer: LOBO PAULO H · Jockey: ROMAN EVIN A

Today's prediction

72.6

Speed fig

35.7%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.25
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.24
  • Distance Change From Last +0.20
  • Weight Change From Last +0.13
  • Num Career Starts +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.86
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.63
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.47
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.45
  • Today Field Size -0.45

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-10 KEE 7f Dirt 3 2.3 74 84 Opened up 2p;cght late
2026-01-17 TP 6.5f Dirt 8 4.8 66 81 Ins-2p;shook free;wknd
2025-12-17 TP 6f Dirt 8 17.0 55 82 Widest turn no menace
2025-11-19 CD 6f Dirt 2 1.5 81 83 Clear pace;caught late
2025-09-18 IND 5f Turf 7 5.0 63 78 Bmp;imp st;3p1/4