Mon, May 25
Race 4
Clm 20000n2l
Post: 2:13 · 6.5f · Dirt · $49K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #9 RIDE THE BROOM (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 THEORETICALLY (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 7, 2, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$41.53
mean $43.06
Expected ROI
-83.1%
net $-4.99
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 7, 2, 5] — hits 2.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $42 (mean $43; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3, 7
B Contenders
2, 5, 6
C Value-edge longshots
8, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.6% | $30.90 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.1% | $50.51 | -80% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.6% | $41.12 | -84% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.0% | $61.82 | -78% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 7.9% | $49.44 | -80% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ASDUCAT | 3.5-1 | 3.5-1 | 72.1 | 15% | 43% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | APWHAT'S HER NUMBER | 3.0-1 | 3.3-1 | 69.5 | 14% | 40% | ▼-24% |
| 2 | BSAUTHENTIC ANGEL | 4.0-1 | 5.3-1 | 72.4 | 13% | 37% | ▼-14% |
| 5 | BPCALIFORNIA SMOKE | 6.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 70.9 | 11% | 34% | ·-3% |
| 6 | BPDANCEWHENYOUCAN | 10-1 | 13-1 | 66.5 | 9% | 29% | ▲+6% |
| 10 | PMAMARSHA | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 68.6 | 9% | 28% | ·-1% |
| 8 | CSI'M A COOKIE LOVER | 15-1 | 19-1 | 67.2 | 9% | 27% | ▲+11% |
| 9 | EPRIDE THE BROOM | 12-1 | 16-1 | 68.0 | 9% | 27% | ▲+7% |
| 4 | CEPTHEORETICALLY | 30-1 | 53-1 | 61.8 | 6% | 19% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | PPAULINE'S ANGEL | 20-1 | 39-1 | 60.1 | 5% | 17% | ·+4% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.