Mon, May 25
Race 3
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 1:43 · 1.38m · Turf · $127K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #6 ORAIA (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 WORRY BE GONE (E, QSP 3)
- #3 SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP (EP, QSP 2)
- #2 ENSORCELL (EP, QSP 2)
1 of 7 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 7, 3, 5
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$7.31
mean $16.05
Expected ROI
-79.6%
net $-4.78
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 7, 3, 5] — hits 7.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $7 (mean $16; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
4
B Contenders
7, 3, 5
C Value-edge longshots
2, 6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 8.3% | $7.80 | -88% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 13.5% | $7.31 | -76% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 13.1% | $7.31 | -77% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 14.4% | $9.05 | -77% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 19.4% | $22.42 | -73% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AEWORRY BE GONE | 1.6-1 | 1.2-1 | 86.2 | 22% | 61% | ▼-37% |
| 7 | BPLAZA ATHENEE | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 82.2 | 18% | 53% | ▼-11% |
| 3 | BEPSNIPSNIPPITYSNIP | 2.0-1 | 2.2-1 | 83.7 | 17% | 50% | ▼-35% |
| 5 | BSMALIBU SMART | 15-1 | 18-1 | 82.0 | 14% | 44% | ▲+28% |
| 2 | CEPENSORCELL | 8.0-1 | 8.7-1 | 80.9 | 13% | 40% | ▲+12% |
| 6 | CEPORAIA | 10-1 | 13-1 | 79.5 | 10% | 34% | ▲+11% |
| 1 | PMINT DRIVEN | 30-1 | 54-1 | 69.1 | 5% | 18% | ▲+10% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.