John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 7

WHAT'S HER NUMBER

M '21 · DIALED IN × CHALONITKA

Trainer: SANTAMARIA CARLOS · Jockey: ARRIETA FRANCISCO

Today's prediction

69.5

Speed fig

39.9%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.31
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.20
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d +0.12
  • Starts Last 180d +0.11
  • Speed Fig Trend +0.08

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.19
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.08
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.70
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.40
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.29

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-02 OP 6f Dirt 3 2.0 75 76 Off slow;dropped insde
2026-04-24 OP 6f Dirt 2 0.1 81 72 3p1/4; 6p upper; rally
2026-03-27 OP 6f Dirt 5 12.5 60 79 Ins-2p; weakened lane
2026-02-20 OP 6f Dirt 4 5.8 64 77 Bid3p5/16; flatten1/8
2026-02-07 OP 6f Dirt 6 7.5 66 78 3p; 7p upper; no close
2026-01-01 OP 6f Dirt 4 4.8 69 78 Off slow;used;flattend
2025-06-13 CD 7f Dirt 2 5.8 71 77 Brk out/bmp;ins winner
2025-05-09 CD 6f Dirt 1 0.5 76 78 2w;bmps;outkck;kept on
2025-04-16 KEE 6f Dirt 3 8.5 71 79 4p;plc bid;turned away
2025-02-17 OP 6f Dirt 2 2.5 75 78 Moved out; 2nd best