Mon, May 25
Race 5
Clm 30000b
Post: 2:45 · 1.06m · Dirt · $63K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #2 ARTHUR'S COURT (EP, QSP 8)
- #4 JUST A FAIR SHAKE (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 WISH CAREFULLY (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 HIGGINSVILLE (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 IZZY D'ORO (EP, QSP 3)
1 of 10 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 4, 10
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$191.31
mean $204.83
Expected ROI
-36.6%
net $-2.20
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 4, 10] — hits 1.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $191 (mean $205; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 4
B Contenders
10, 9, 2
C Value-edge longshots
6, 3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.7% | $131.53 | -45% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.4% | $176.31 | -52% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.2% | $131.53 | -52% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.8% | $197.19 | -41% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 6.7% | $190.49 | -44% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AEPIZZY D'ORO | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | 81.5 | 13% | 39% | ·+2% |
| 4 | AEPJUST A FAIR SHAKE | 4.0-1 | 3.6-1 | 81.2 | 12% | 36% | ▼-15% |
| 10 | BPPROTECTIVE | 15-1 | 12-1 | 79.6 | 12% | 36% | ▲+20% |
| 9 | BSYELLOW BRICK | 6.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 81.1 | 11% | 34% | ·-3% |
| 2 | BEPARTHUR'S COURT | 5.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 76.0 | 10% | 30% | ▼-12% |
| 6 | CSMAGIC GRANT | 15-1 | 19-1 | 78.3 | 9% | 28% | ▲+12% |
| 7 | GUNS AND GLORY | 6.0-1 | 8.9-1 | 79.8 | 9% | 28% | ▼-9% |
| 1 | PSTORM THE STREETS | 3.5-1 | 4.2-1 | 76.0 | 9% | 27% | ▼-30% |
| 3 | CEPWISH CAREFULLY | 20-1 | 32-1 | 74.1 | 7% | 22% | ▲+10% |
| 8 | EPHIGGINSVILLE | 10-1 | 12-1 | 74.0 | 7% | 21% | ·-2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.