John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 10

MAMARSHA

F '23 · PROMISES FULFILLED × FORT MARSH

Trainer: HOLSAPPLE HUTCH · Jockey: MACHADO LUAN

Today's prediction

68.6

Speed fig

27.7%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.41
  • Class Par Trend +0.23
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.21
  • Mean Speed Fig Career +0.17
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean +0.16

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.80
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.65
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.19
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.55
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.43

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-26 CD 6f Dirt 2 2.3 73 78 Prompted 4wd;2nd best
2026-03-11 TP 6f Dirt 1 1.5 71 72 Off slw;7p3/16;rallied
2026-02-26 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 4.0 68 72 3w;4-6w upr;edged show
2026-01-17 TP 6f Dirt 2 1.0 65 72 3-4p;ran on;kpt at bay
2025-12-17 TP 1m Dirt 3 10.3 57 64 Dueled weakened
2025-10-30 CD 1m Dirt 10 64.0 -4 70 Pinched st;show little
2025-10-17 KEE 5.5f Turf 9 35.0 29 81 Reluctant to load;4-5p
2025-10-05 KEE 6.5f Dirt 6 6.3 64 78 3p; one paced
2025-08-24 ELP 5.5f Turf 10 7.5 63 77 Saved ground; no avail