John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 5

CALIFORNIA SMOKE

F '23 · COASTLINE × NO FIGHTING

Trainer: NAVARRETE ANNA · Jockey: CRISPIN ALEXANDER

Today's prediction

70.9

Speed fig

33.6%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.37
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.17
  • Distance Change From Last +0.16
  • Num Career Starts +0.13
  • Mean Trouble Last 5 +0.08

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.02
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.61
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.55
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.41
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.41

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-10 CD 6.5f Dirt 5 5.3 69 79 Bmpd btw;3pbtw;brsh1/8
2026-02-22 FG 6f Dirt 3 3.8 72 79 Pinch; split; 4w; show
2026-01-31 FG 6f Dirt 4 7.8 66 81 Cued1/4; empty
2026-01-09 TP 1m Dirt 8 21.3 60 87 Vied 2w;3pbtw 2nd;wknd
2025-11-22 CD 6.5f Dirt 1 4.5 80 76 Ins-2p;5p1/4;bid;clear