John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 4

THEORETICALLY

F '22 · HIGHER POWER × DIRTY SHAME

Trainer: GARCIA GENARO · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

61.8

Speed fig

19.1%

In-the-money

Last 6 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Class Par Trend +0.48
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate +0.33
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.30
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.24
  • BRIS Turf Pedigree +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -8.77
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.75
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.64
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.16
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -1.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-10 CD 1.06m Dirt 7 19.3 57 76 2w1st;5-4p2nd;tired
2026-04-21 IND 1m Dirt 8 33.0 33 74 Sted7/8;3p;faded1/4
2025-10-15 IND 1m Dirt 2 3.5 71 74 Stlk2p;bid1/8;no match
2025-09-11 IND 6f Dirt 4 13.5 56 74 Brsh st;stlk3p;faded
2025-08-16 IND 6f Dirt 1 0.1 68 66 Duel;vied str;mild urg
2025-07-17 IND 5.5f Dirt 5 5.0 58 66 Bmp st;bid4p5/16