John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 3

DUCAT

F '23 · ESSENTIAL QUALITY × ROYAL MANDATE

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: SANTANA RICARDO JR

Today's prediction

72.1

Speed fig

42.9%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.35
  • Weight Change From Last +0.27
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.15
  • Today Post Position +0.14
  • Class Par Trend +0.12

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.05
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.55
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.48
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.44
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.37

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-11 OP 6f Dirt 7 16.5 63 88 Bump st; 4p; no menace
2026-03-14 OP 6f Dirt 3 7.3 72 Off slow;inside rally
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 1 4.5 78 78 2p;6p upper;rally;clr
2026-01-03 OP 6f Dirt 2 4.5 72 75 Tght brk;duel;2nd best