John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R4

PP 6

DANCEWHENYOUCAN

F '23 · KNOWN AGENDA × DANCE THEWAYYOUARE

Trainer: STEWART DALLAS · Jockey: GUTIERREZ MARIO

Today's prediction

66.5

Speed fig

28.8%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Today Track Code +0.36
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.26
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d +0.26
  • Last Finish Pos +0.24
  • Field Size Change From Last +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.98
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.41
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.92
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.91
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.81

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-25 CD 6f Dirt 1 0.5 72 74 Stalk 3p;led 3/16;held
2026-02-14 OP 6f Dirt 9 18.0 48 78 Wellback 4p; no threat
2025-12-14 OP 6f Dirt 5 8.3 62 74 Fell back rail;evenly
2025-10-26 CD 1.06m Dirt 7 16.0 69 81 Stalk ins;fade 2-3pupr
2025-09-11 CD 6f Dirt 9 16.0 61 84 Restless gt;2wbtw;wknd