Sun, May 24
Race 9
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 4:56 · 1.38m · Turf · $127K purse · 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #11 ASHLEY'S ARCHER (EP, QSP 6)
- #6 DIFFERENT GRAVY (E, QSP 6)
- #2 LAZLO (E, QSP 4)
- #10 WARLANDER (EP, QSP 4)
- #8 KING OF ASHES (EP, QSP 4)
- #4 KICKING CLEAR (EP, QSP 3)
- #13 TAUNTING (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 3, 2, 11
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$180.79
mean $181.53
Expected ROI
-64.2%
net $-3.85
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 2, 11] — hits 1.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $181 (mean $182; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
2, 11, 12
C Value-edge longshots
5, 10
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.3% | $170.36 | -65% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 2.2% | $180.79 | -56% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.3% | $193.34 | -64% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.4% | $131.08 | -71% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.6% | $159.03 | -66% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ASWRITE OFF JERRY | 6.0-1 | 4.7-1 | 89.0 | 13% | 38% | ·+2% |
| 2 | BELAZLO | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 88.6 | 11% | 31% | ·+3% |
| 11 | BEPASHLEY'S ARCHER | 5.0-1 | 5.0-1 | 85.4 | 10% | 30% | ▼-13% |
| 12 | BPMY BOY TONY | 6.0-1 | 5.9-1 | 86.0 | 10% | 29% | ▼-8% |
| 9 | PTELESCOPIC | 4.0-1 | 4.7-1 | 85.1 | 8% | 26% | ▼-25% |
| 10 | CEPWARLANDER | 15-1 | 16-1 | 86.0 | 8% | 25% | ▲+9% |
| 5 | CSFORT THOMAS | 20-1 | 26-1 | 85.9 | 8% | 23% | ▲+11% |
| 4 | EPKICKING CLEAR | 12-1 | 14-1 | 81.7 | 7% | 23% | ·+3% |
| 7 | SSTEEL | 10-1 | 11-1 | 82.7 | 7% | 21% | ·-2% |
| 1 | PTHEODORE GEORGE | 20-1 | 25-1 | 83.6 | 6% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 6 | EDIFFERENT GRAVY | 12-1 | 17-1 | 76.4 | 4% | 13% | ▼-7% |
| 13 | EPTAUNTING | 30-1 | 56-1 | 78.8 | 4% | 12% | ·+4% |
| 8 | EPKING OF ASHES | 8.0-1 | 9.8-1 | 71.4 | 3% | 10% | ▼-18% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 9 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.