Sun, May 24
Race 8
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 4:23 · 1.06m · Dirt · $134K purse · 6 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
6 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #1 ANNA'S PROMISE (E, QSP 6)
- #3 AMARTH (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 UNION MIST (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 FORESEEN (E, QSP 4)
Trifecta shape
CompetitiveModel has no clear edge — every ticket structure is steeply negative-EV. Skip, or treat as an entertainment bet and size accordingly.
3-horse box on posts 5, 1, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$18.79
mean $26.89
Expected ROI
-68.7%
net $-4.12
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 1, 6] — hits 7.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $19 (mean $27; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Multiple legitimate contenders — model is less concentrated.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
1, 6, 4
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 7.5% | $16.82 | -79% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 11.3% | $18.79 | -76% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 13.2% | $18.79 | -74% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 15.0% | $19.67 | -75% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 23.9% | $19.98 | -75% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APBEING MYSELF | 1.2-1 | 0.8-1 | 88.7 | 24% | 64% | ▼-36% |
| 1 | BEANNA'S PROMISE | 3.5-1 | 4.7-1 | 85.6 | 16% | 49% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | BSSIERRA NOVEMBER | 6.0-1 | 7.4-1 | 82.8 | 16% | 48% | ▲+12% |
| 4 | BEPUNION MIST | 4.5-1 | 5.6-1 | 82.2 | 15% | 48% | ·+1% |
| 3 | CEPAMARTH | 8.0-1 | 8.8-1 | 84.2 | 15% | 47% | ▲+19% |
| 2 | EFORESEEN | 5.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 83.1 | 14% | 44% | ·+2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.