John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 11

ASHLEY'S ARCHER

g '22 · KARAKONTIE × CERTAINLY SPECIAL

Trainer: CASSE MARK · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

85.4

Speed fig

29.8%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +7.58
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.33
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.32
  • Last Speed Fig +0.72
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.51

Pushing prediction down

  • Distance Change From Last -0.47
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.47
  • Today Field Size -0.45
  • Today Post Position -0.41
  • Today Track Code -0.28

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-25 CD 1.13m Turf 3 1.5 89 90 Ins foe 2nd;duel;outkk
2026-03-28 GP 1m Turf 4 2.5 81 89 Keen;checkd repeatedly
2025-09-09 FE 1.19m Dirt 5 23.5 58 94 Evenly; no real threat
2025-08-16 WO 1.25m Dirt 13 44.5 46 94 6w midpack;retreat7/16
2025-07-13 WO 1.06m Dirt 2 0.3 89 93 Led 1/4;clear;collared
2025-04-09 KEE 1.06m Dirt 6 8.5 80 91 Pull 4w;bid 3w2nd;fade
2025-03-02 TAM 7f Dirt 2 5.0 81 87 Brush brk; no match
2024-11-30 WO 1.13m Dirt 3 2.3 78 88 Btw;led 5/16-3/16;duel
2024-10-06 WO 1.06m Turf 1 0.1 86 88 Bump foe 3/16;surge;up
2024-09-15 WO 1.06m Turf 1 3.5 88 81 Well rationed up top