Sun, May 24
Race 10
Md 50000
Post: 5:27 · 6f · Dirt · $67K purse · 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
6 of 13 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 3, 1, 2
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.5%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$23.83
mean $25.10
Expected ROI
-81.1%
net $-4.87
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [3, 1, 2] — hits 4.5% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $24 (mean $25; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
1, 2, 9
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.2% | $20.28 | -84% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.1% | $22.66 | -79% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.1% | $20.28 | -80% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.9% | $22.66 | -78% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 11.4% | $27.17 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | APSOLAIA | 2.0-1 | 1.2-1 | 75.7 | 19% | 52% | ▼-33% |
| 1 | BEDIAGRAM | 5.0-1 | 5.4-1 | 77.7 | 16% | 46% | ·+4% |
| 2 | BSSMOKIN HOT STUFF | 4.0-1 | 3.8-1 | 75.8 | 14% | 40% | ▼-11% |
| 9 | BPWITH KINDNESS | 6.0-1 | 6.2-1 | 74.8 | 12% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 5 | SSILVERTOWN | 20-1 | 41-1 | 67.3 | 6% | 20% | ▲+7% |
| 12 | ELORIEBETH | 20-1 | 31-1 | 66.6 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 10 | DONNA STRADA | 20-1 | 41-1 | 67.0 | 5% | 16% | ·+4% |
| 7 | THE LONG EMBRACE | 20-1 | 32-1 | 62.4 | 5% | 15% | ·+3% |
| 11 | BALACLAVA | 15-1 | 30-1 | 65.9 | 4% | 14% | ·-2% |
| 6 | PARMY CHIC | 20-1 | 31-1 | 63.8 | 4% | 14% | ·+2% |
| 8 | SWEETTALKINGWOMAN | 12-1 | 19-1 | 67.0 | 4% | 13% | ▼-6% |
| 4 | SPILL THE SUGAR | 15-1 | 22-1 | 57.2 | 3% | 12% | ·-4% |
| 13 | GUCCI GAMMY | 50-1 | 68-1 | 44.1 | 1% | 4% | ·-1% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 10 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.