John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R9

PP 7

STEEL

C '23 · TAPIT × SNUGGS AND KISSES

Trainer: MOTT WILLIAM I · Jockey: ALVARADO JUNIOR

Today's prediction

82.7

Speed fig

21.4%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.69
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.09
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.73
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.70
  • Last Speed Fig +0.37

Pushing prediction down

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.77
  • Distance Change From Last -0.56
  • Is Surface Change From Last -0.23
  • Today Field Size -0.22
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Mean -0.22

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-02 CD 1.06m Dirt 8 5.0 87 91 Tight btw early; ins
2026-04-04 AQU 1.13m Dirt 9 8.3 82 98 Toss head;off slw;3-5p
2026-02-28 GP 1m Dirt 1 0.1 83 87 Off slow;2-4p;closd;up