Sat, May 16
Race 1
Alw 127000n1x
Post: 6:00 · 5f · Turf · $127K purse · 16 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
16 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #8 ROJO RITA (E, QSP 8)
- #2 SHE WANTS WAR (E, QSP 7)
- #4 SHOULD'VE (E, QSP 5)
- #12 STEPPING STONES (EP, QSP 5)
- #14 BOURBON NOTES (E, QSP 5)
- #7 LILIES N PARADISE (EP, QSP 5)
- #13 IF IF IF (EP, QSP 4)
- #15 COTILLARD (EP, QSP 4)
- #16 JERSEYS PARADE (E, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 4, 11, 2, 12
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$41.31
mean $80.88
Expected ROI
-90.9%
net $-5.45
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [4, 11, 2, 12] — hits 0.7% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $41 (mean $81; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
4, 11
B Contenders
2, 12, 10
C Value-edge longshots
6
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 0.7% | $41.31 | -95% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.2% | $93.43 | -90% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.3% | $46.74 | -90% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 1.9% | $113.67 | -86% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 2.1% | $113.67 | -84% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AESHOULD'VE | 2.5-1 | 2.1-1 | 83.9 | 10% | 30% | ▼-43% |
| 11 | ASSECRET HIDEAWAY | 4.5-1 | 4.4-1 | 81.3 | 9% | 26% | ▼-20% |
| 2 | BESHE WANTS WAR | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 80.5 | 9% | 25% | ▼-32% |
| 12 | BEPSTEPPING STONES | 15-1 | 17-1 | 79.6 | 8% | 25% | ▲+9% |
| 10 | BSSOMETHING STRONGER | 12-1 | 12-1 | 80.5 | 7% | 22% | ·+2% |
| 6 | CSJ Z'S LAST SCHANCE | 20-1 | 24-1 | 77.3 | 7% | 20% | ▲+8% |
| 13 | EPIF IF IF | 10-1 | 13-1 | 76.6 | 6% | 19% | ·-4% |
| 8 | EROJO RITA | 8.0-1 | 7.9-1 | 76.5 | 6% | 18% | ▼-10% |
| 3 | PGRADE A | 10-1 | 16-1 | 76.3 | 5% | 16% | ▼-7% |
| 5 | SMISS LONELLE | 30-1 | 49-1 | 75.5 | 5% | 16% | ▲+7% |
| 1 | PVIVA VIENNE | 20-1 | 29-1 | 76.8 | 5% | 16% | ·+3% |
| 9 | PJUST A MINUTE | 15-1 | 18-1 | 71.0 | 5% | 14% | ·-2% |
| 14 | EBOURBON NOTES | 20-1 | 35-1 | 75.2 | 5% | 14% | ·+2% |
| 15 | EPCOTILLARD | 15-1 | 38-1 | 71.2 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 7 | EPLILIES N PARADISE | 15-1 | 23-1 | 72.0 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 16 | EJERSEYS PARADE | 20-1 | 66-1 | 75.6 | 4% | 13% | ·+1% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 1 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.