Sat, May 16
Race 2
Md Sp Wt
Post: 6:28 · 6f · Dirt · $120K purse · 12 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
12 runnersUnprojectable
7 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (likely first-time starters) — pace shape can't be called.
Projected speed
- #5 WINNING MATTERS (EP, QSP 5)
- #10 LOCKDOWNYOURTOWN (E, QSP 4)
7 of 12 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 11, 9, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.6%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$79.78
mean $116.08
Expected ROI
-29.6%
net $-1.77
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [11, 9, 3] — hits 3.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $80 (mean $116; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
11
B Contenders
9, 3, 10
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.2% | $93.37 | -45% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 5.4% | $102.22 | -29% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 9.4% | $130.98 | -20% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.4% | $91.56 | -60% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 8.8% | $93.37 | -47% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | ASMOVIE NIGHT | 1.8-1 | 0.9-1 | 84.3 | 23% | 59% | ▼-32% |
| 9 | BSHEADSPIN | 12-1 | 15-1 | 78.6 | 12% | 37% | ▲+17% |
| 3 | BSPOISE | 8.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 77.0 | 12% | 36% | ▲+8% |
| 10 | BELOCKDOWNYOURTOWN | 15-1 | 19-1 | 70.9 | 8% | 26% | ▲+10% |
| 5 | EPWINNING MATTERS | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 71.0 | 7% | 23% | ▼-6% |
| 2 | EPIC PROUD MARY | 15-1 | 22-1 | 70.5 | 7% | 22% | ▲+6% |
| 4 | TEATONIC | 4.5-1 | 5.3-1 | 71.5 | 6% | 21% | ▼-26% |
| 7 | AUDRA | 6.0-1 | 7.3-1 | 68.5 | 6% | 20% | ▼-16% |
| 1 | ANESTY | 20-1 | 39-1 | 67.5 | 5% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 6 | ANGEL FROM MARIN | 20-1 | 52-1 | 66.8 | 4% | 15% | ·+3% |
| 12 | THIRTEEN ROSES | 20-1 | 44-1 | 67.0 | 4% | 13% | ·+1% |
| 8 | FASHION QUEST | 30-1 | 48-1 | 60.4 | 3% | 11% | ·+2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sat, May 16 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.