John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 3

GRADE A

F '22 · ARMY MULE × DOWNTOWN DRIFTER

Trainer: O'DWYER JEREMIAH · Jockey: SHEEHY DANNY

Today's prediction

76.3

Speed fig

15.8%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.91
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.79
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.72
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.54
  • Speed Fig At Similar Distance Mean +0.35

Pushing prediction down

  • Days Since Last Race -0.88
  • BRIS Prime Power -0.79
  • Today Field Size -0.71
  • Num Career Starts -0.35
  • Starts Last 180d -0.27

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-11-23 CD 1m Turf 8 9.0 76 86 3w;chased 2p2nd;tired
2025-11-01 CD 5.5f Turf 5 3.5 87 Ins;chck 7/16;chsd btw
2025-10-05 KEE 5.5f Turf 2 0.5 94 Shuf early;7p1/4;rally
2025-08-28 KD 6.5f Turf 4 5.0 84 87 3-4w turn; kept on
2025-08-04 PID 6f Dirt 4 6.0 82 88 Long drive;late respon
2025-07-06 ELP 5.5f Turf 3 1.0 85 87 2wbtw;split1/8;ins bid
2025-06-08 CD 5.5f Turf 3 1.0 87 87 Vied 2w;btw upr;denied
2025-05-02 CD 6.5f Dirt 8 16.5 72 86 Duel ins; gave way
2025-04-11 KEE 1.06m Turf 11 24.5 59 Vied 2wd;faded btw5/16
2025-03-01 GP 1m Turf 7 3.0 85 88 Led;svd gnd;gave way