John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 3

SHOULD'VE

F '23 · NOT THIS TIME × MORE'N LIKELY

Trainer: WARD WESLEY A · Jockey: MENDOZA AMIR

Scratched today

85.7

Speed fig

In-the-money

This horse was scratched and won't run today. Past-performance data below is unaffected.

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.41
  • Last Speed Fig +0.66
  • Today Track Code +0.59
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.55
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.51

Pushing prediction down

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.39
  • Today Field Size -0.13
  • Mean Trouble Last 5 -0.13
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.13
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-10 KEE 5.5f Turf 6 4.8 89 90 Step slow;5p1/4;mvd up
2025-11-07 AQU 6f Turf 8 6.0 71 85 Bmp brk;ins trn;falter
2025-10-02 BAQ 6f Turf 3 1.0 85 83 Stumbled st; caught
2025-08-28 KD 6.5f Turf 1 0.8 70 79 Sent outside;held safe