John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 7

LILIES N PARADISE

F '23 · MAXFIELD × WHY OH YOU

Trainer: MAKER MICHAEL J · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

72.0

Speed fig

13.1%

In-the-money

Last 3 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Distance Change From Last +0.25
  • Num Career Starts +0.22
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.17
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.14
  • Tj Combo Win Rate 365d +0.11

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.35
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.82
  • Today Field Size -0.76
  • BRIS Prime Power -0.63
  • Days Since Last Race -0.38

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-08-14 DEL 6f Dirt 3 5.0 76 81 Led 7/16; duel; faded
2025-06-29 CD 6f Dirt 5 9.0 73 90 Ins-2p;4w1/4;flatn btw
2025-06-06 CD 4.5f Dirt 1 0.1 79 81 3p;5p str;inched ahead