John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 10

SOMETHING STRONGER

F '22 · JUSTIFY × LORA PADORA

Trainer: STALL ALBERT M JR · Jockey: HERNANDEZ B J JR

Today's prediction

80.5

Speed fig

21.7%

In-the-money

Last 8 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +3.87
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.87
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.17
  • Today Track Code +0.15
  • BRIS Dirt Pedigree +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.86
  • Today Post Position -0.39
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.37
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.25
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.23

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 5.5f Turf 2 2.3 79 87 3p;5p btw1/8;rally btw
2026-02-07 FG 5.5f Turf 2 2.0 81 82 Swung 5w;willingly
2026-01-10 FG 5.5f Dirt 9 15.5 63 82 Trailed most
2025-11-22 CD 1m Turf 7 7.0 77 86 Track 3p;bid btw;yield
2025-06-28 CD 1m Turf 6 7.0 86 89 Ins;headd 5/8;gave way
2025-05-15 CD 5f Turf 1 0.5 84 83 4-3w;6p upr;up in time
2024-12-26 FG 1.06m Dirt 2 5.5 77 81 Bmpd;4-3w;bid;outkckd
2024-11-10 CD 1.06m Dirt 2 6.0 69 81 3w;vied 2w2nd;2nd best