John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 6

J Z'S LAST SCHANCE

F '22 · SHANCELOT × MADAME DUBOIS

Trainer: ZAWITZ JOEL · Jockey: ROMAN EVIN A

Today's prediction

77.3

Speed fig

20.4%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.96
  • Today Track Code +0.42
  • Class Par Trend +0.22
  • Trainer Meet Win Rate +0.16
  • Distance Change From Last +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.93
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.53
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.47
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.21
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.17

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-11 TP 6f Dirt 4 3.5 79 88 Bmp/tght btw st;7w3/16
2025-12-18 GP 5.5f Dirt 5 3.8 75 84 Step slow;2-4p;flattnd
2025-11-23 LRL 5.5f Turf 3 1.3 79 80 3p turn;6p lane;ran on
2025-11-02 LRL 5.5f Turf 2 1.5 81 80 Rate ins;angl out;game
2025-10-24 LRL 5.5f Turf 1 1.0 74 77 Fidgety;stp slw;checkd
2025-09-26 LRL 5.5f Turf 2 3.3 75 71 Steadied 5/8;mild bid
2025-09-03 CNL 5.5f Turf 3 2.5 76 82 Floated out brk;4w1/4
2025-07-31 CNL 5.5f Turf 2 0.8 79 83 3-4p;rangled6w;closed
2025-06-28 LRL 5.5f Turf 2 0.3 70 78 9w upper;left lead;bid
2025-06-13 LRL 5.5f Turf 2 0.5 74 78 6wd 1/8; rallied;