John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R1

PP 5

MISS LONELLE

F '22 · FLAMEAWAY × CHARLENE'S PAL

Trainer: CATALANO WAYNE M · Jockey: CARRASCO VICTOR R

Today's prediction

75.5

Speed fig

15.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.68
  • Today Track Code +0.36
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.32
  • Distance Change From Last +0.30
  • Class Par Trend +0.27

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.79
  • Today Field Size -0.56
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.40
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.18
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.17

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-18 KEE 5.5f Turf 8 4.0 76 87 Stdy st;traffc btw lat
2026-02-07 FG 5.5f Turf 7 8.0 70 82 Stdy 7/16;ins;no bid
2026-01-22 FG 1m Turf 4 4.8 78 83 Alert; speed; yld3/16
2025-04-12 KEE 1.06m Turf 10 8.8 76 Prs 3p;bmpd/impeded3/8
2025-03-06 TP 6f Dirt 8 16.0 64 82 Ins run str; faltered
2025-01-17 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 17.0 58 84 Pressed to turn empty
2024-11-07 CD 1.06m Turf 3 4.3 84 Ins;2w;aim 3p1/4;outkk
2024-10-04 KEE 1.06m Turf 10 11.3 67 84 3w;5p btw upr;faded
2024-09-07 KD 6.5f Turf 1 0.8 86 78 3-2p;5p upr;edged past
2024-08-12 ELP 5.5f Turf 2 0.1 76 76 Bmpd st;into lane;miss