Wed, Apr 29
Race 7
OClm 80000n2x
Post: 3:52 · 5f · Turf · $134K purse · 13 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
13 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #9 ROJA (EP, QSP 7)
- #1 FANCY CABER NEIGH (E, QSP 7)
- #11 TEMPTING EVE (EP, QSP 6)
- #4 CART GIRL SAM (EP, QSP 5)
- #12 GLADRIEL (E, QSP 5)
- #8 CABERNEIGH (E, QSP 5)
- #6 HIGH FASHION KATE (EP, QSP 4)
- #10 ROSATO (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 2, 9, 4
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$77.30
mean $90.46
Expected ROI
-75.2%
net $-4.51
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 9, 4] — hits 1.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $77 (mean $90; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 9
B Contenders
4, 5, 3
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.6% | $32.45 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 3.0% | $58.55 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 3.1% | $36.29 | -83% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 4.6% | $58.55 | -81% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 5.7% | $58.63 | -76% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | APSHOOT IT TRUE | 1.4-1 | 0.8-1 | 89.7 | 14% | 40% | ▼-60% |
| 9 | AEPROJA | 4.0-1 | 3.0-1 | 87.5 | 13% | 37% | ▼-14% |
| 4 | BEPCART GIRL SAM | 15-1 | 16-1 | 86.3 | 10% | 31% | ▲+15% |
| 5 | BPJUSTINQUESO | 8.0-1 | 7.1-1 | 87.9 | 10% | 29% | ·+1% |
| 3 | BPI'M MO JOKE | 20-1 | 24-1 | 84.9 | 9% | 27% | ▲+15% |
| 7 | SSATIN BLUE | 8.0-1 | 8.7-1 | 84.3 | 9% | 27% | ·-2% |
| 10 | EPROSATO | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 83.8 | 8% | 25% | ▼-11% |
| 6 | EPHIGH FASHION KATE | 10-1 | 13-1 | 80.3 | 6% | 19% | ·-5% |
| 12 | EGLADRIEL | 30-1 | 36-1 | 79.2 | 5% | 16% | ▲+8% |
| 11 | EPTEMPTING EVE | 12-1 | 18-1 | 79.0 | 5% | 16% | ·-4% |
| 13 | SJ Z'S LAST SCHANCE | 30-1 | 47-1 | 76.8 | 4% | 14% | ▲+6% |
| 1 | EFANCY CABER NEIGH | 15-1 | 20-1 | 77.1 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 8 | ECABERNEIGH | 50-1 | 78-1 | 67.6 | 2% | 7% | ·+2% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.