John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 5

SATIN BLUE

M '21 · THE FACTOR × MACKENZIE CAPRI

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: ORTIZ JOSE L

Today's prediction

85.6

Speed fig

43.2%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +5.78
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.93
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.76
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.66
  • Today Track Code +0.29

Pushing prediction down

  • Class Par Trend -0.16
  • Starts Last 180d -0.14
  • Today Field Size -0.11
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate -0.10
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.09

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-29 CD 5f Turf 4 3.8 82 87 Ins;btw1/8;denied show
2025-06-29 CD 5f Turf 4 3.3 83 87 Bit awk;2p;ran on btw
2025-05-15 CD 5.5f Turf 1 1.3 89 87 Ins;6-8p upr;up late
2025-04-16 KEE 5.5f Turf 7 5.0 77 87 Ins-2p;brsh 7p upr;evn
2024-11-10 CD 5.5f Dirt 3 1.8 79 86 4w;5p1/4;bid;repelled
2024-10-20 KEE 1m Turf 6 3.0 80 87 3w-4p;bid;6-5p1/4;vied
2024-09-01 KD 7f Turf 1 5.5 87 82 Inside;drw off;driving
2024-07-27 SAR 5.5f Turf 2 0.3 78 83 Stmbld brk;bmp;ins trn
2024-06-26 CD 5f Dirt 2 1.5 89 83 Bumpd st;5p1/4;rallied
2024-06-02 CD 5.5f Dirt 4 3.0 77 85 Bumpd btw/jostld early
2024-04-26 KEE 6f Dirt 2 11.8 76 90 Stalked 3wd; no match