Wed, Apr 29
Race 8
Alw 50000s
Post: 4:25 · 7f · Dirt · $83K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #3 SHARONS BEACH (E, QSP 5)
- #4 MO WORK (EP, QSP 5)
- #8 SPEEDSTORM (EP, QSP 4)
- #2 FREE ADVICE (EP, QSP 4)
- #7 SOUTH BEND TOM (EP, QSP 3)
- #6 GOOD MOJO (EP, QSP 2)
- #1 NORWICH (EP, QSP 1)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 3, 4, 1, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$41.31
mean $60.64
Expected ROI
-66.5%
net $-3.99
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [3, 4, 1, 6] — hits 3.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $41 (mean $61; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
3
B Contenders
4, 1, 6
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.8% | $44.75 | -71% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.0% | $73.44 | -63% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.3% | $54.49 | -63% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.9% | $73.17 | -66% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 11.5% | $68.54 | -59% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AESHARONS BEACH | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 87.3 | 18% | 50% | ▼-23% |
| 4 | BEPMO WORK | 4.0-1 | 3.7-1 | 86.3 | 15% | 44% | ▼-7% |
| 1 | BEPNORWICH | 4.5-1 | 4.7-1 | 83.7 | 13% | 38% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | BEPGOOD MOJO | 12-1 | 8.9-1 | 79.9 | 11% | 34% | ▲+14% |
| 9 | PSWEET FREEDOM | 8.0-1 | 8.3-1 | 81.0 | 11% | 33% | ·+4% |
| 5 | PGORDON'S LEGACY | 6.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 79.2 | 9% | 28% | ▼-8% |
| 8 | EPSPEEDSTORM | 12-1 | 14-1 | 76.7 | 7% | 22% | ·+3% |
| 2 | EPFREE ADVICE | 15-1 | 22-1 | 74.9 | 6% | 19% | ·+3% |
| 7 | EPSOUTH BEND TOM | 6.0-1 | 5.5-1 | 72.5 | 5% | 18% | ▼-19% |
| 10 | PJUST LIKE MAX | 30-1 | 54-1 | 72.0 | 4% | 14% | ▲+6% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.