Wed, Apr 29
Race 6
KyJuvnileB250k
Post: 3:20 · 5f · Dirt · $250K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersContested pace
3 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 SKARA BRAE (E, QSP 6)
- #4 WAGGLEY (E, QSP 6)
- #5 SUPER SAIYAJIN (E, QSP 4)
2 of 8 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 2, 4, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
7.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$13.72
mean $19.41
Expected ROI
-77.4%
net $-4.64
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 4, 8] — hits 7.0% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $14 (mean $19; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2, 4
B Contenders
8, 7, 6
C Value-edge longshots
3
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 6.0% | $9.89 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.2% | $9.89 | -79% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 11.6% | $11.96 | -85% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $24.00 | 14.6% | $19.61 | -65% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 14.8% | $14.91 | -78% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AESKARA BRAE | 1.4-1 | 1.3-1 | 80.4 | 21% | 57% | ▼-43% |
| 4 | AEWAGGLEY | 2.0-1 | 2.0-1 | 80.5 | 20% | 55% | ▼-30% |
| 8 | BPBOURBON TOWN | 10-1 | 10-1 | 73.9 | 15% | 44% | ▲+21% |
| 7 | BSPEAK PERSPECTIVE | 4.5-1 | 5.5-1 | 73.2 | 12% | 38% | ▼-8% |
| 6 | BPFRONTLINE FURY | 20-1 | 39-1 | 72.0 | 11% | 34% | ▲+22% |
| 5 | ESUPER SAIYAJIN | 8.0-1 | 13-1 | 72.8 | 10% | 32% | ·+4% |
| 1 | GLORY RUN | 15-1 | 33-1 | 69.0 | 6% | 20% | ·+4% |
| 3 | CAMERICAN POPE | 30-1 | 55-1 | 63.0 | 6% | 19% | ▲+11% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Wed, Apr 29 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.