John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 2

HIGH FASHION KATE

M '21 · DEMARCHELIER × IN THE ROUGH

Trainer: BLAIR JORDAN · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

79.5

Speed fig

22.9%

In-the-money

Last 11 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.37
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.85
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.57
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.55
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.37

Pushing prediction down

  • Starts Last 180d -0.28
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.27
  • Today Purse Log10 -0.21
  • Num Career Starts -0.20
  • Last Speed Fig -0.15

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-29 CD 5f Turf 9 9.0 72 87 Closer 4p;faltered btw
2025-06-05 CD 5.5f Turf 2 0.1 87 87 Ins;splt 1/8;led;naild
2025-05-01 CD 5f Turf 5 2.5 87 86 Stalk 3w;chsd 4-5p;evn
2025-04-10 KEE 5.5f Turf 3 2.0 84 Pull2p;stdy;brsh rl1/4
2025-03-15 TP 6f Dirt 9 11.8 71 90 Veer in sharply start
2025-02-13 TP 6f Dirt 1 2.5 79 86 Maintained advantage
2024-12-18 TP 6f Dirt 11 10.3 66 91 Slow stride no menace
2024-11-22 CD 5.5f Turf 2 0.1 82 87 3-2w;duel;lug in;outkk
2024-09-20 CD 6f Dirt 1 2.5 85 82 Stalk 2w-3p;cleard 1/8
2024-08-19 ELP 7f Dirt 3 7.8 68 83 Pace; ins upr;faltered
2024-07-29 ELP 6f Dirt 4 5.3 77 80 Stalk 2w-3p;yieldd btw