Mon, May 25
Race 7
Clm 50000n2l
Post: 3:50 · 6.5f · Dirt · $76K purse · 14 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
14 runnersHot pace
9 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 TAMINO (E, QSP 6)
- #14 POP PAUL (EP, QSP 5)
- #11 ARMY WILDCATTER (EP, QSP 4)
- #3 SPEEDSTORM (EP, QSP 3)
- #10 WEAREBACKYOUNGMAN (E, QSP 3)
- #2 CLOCKER SPECIAL (EP, QSP 2)
- #12 GOOD MOJO (EP, QSP 2)
- #13 LUCIUS VERUS (EP, QSP 0)
- #8 GRAY IS OKAY (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 13, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
0.9%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$204.18
mean $207.97
Expected ROI
-69.3%
net $-4.16
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 13, 3] — hits 0.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $204 (mean $208; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
13, 3, 10
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 0.9% | $44.03 | -90% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 1.6% | $62.77 | -87% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 1.7% | $57.95 | -89% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 2.7% | $70.05 | -90% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 3.0% | $83.15 | -84% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AETAMINO | 1.6-1 | 1.1-1 | 82.2 | 13% | 36% | ▼-62% |
| 13 | BEPLUCIUS VERUS | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 78.8 | 9% | 27% | ·-1% |
| 3 | BEPSPEEDSTORM | 15-1 | 17-1 | 76.3 | 9% | 26% | ▲+10% |
| 10 | BEWEAREBACKYOUNGMAN | 4.5-1 | 4.6-1 | 75.5 | 8% | 25% | ▼-21% |
| 4 | PMCILROY | 8.0-1 | 10-1 | 77.7 | 8% | 25% | ·-3% |
| 2 | EPCLOCKER SPECIAL | 6.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 75.9 | 8% | 24% | ▼-13% |
| 9 | PLIL MUGGS | 10-1 | 15-1 | 76.5 | 8% | 24% | ·+0% |
| 12 | EPGOOD MOJO | 12-1 | 15-1 | 74.6 | 6% | 20% | ·-0% |
| 1 | PTRIPP'S PROMISE | 12-1 | 13-1 | 73.7 | 6% | 19% | ·-0% |
| 11 | EPARMY WILDCATTER | 20-1 | 29-1 | 74.0 | 6% | 18% | ▲+6% |
| 14 | EPPOP PAUL | 20-1 | 40-1 | 70.6 | 5% | 16% | ·+4% |
| 6 | SLONGSTRIDER | 20-1 | 36-1 | 70.7 | 5% | 16% | ·+3% |
| 7 | PSOUTHERN BULLET | 30-1 | 54-1 | 71.0 | 4% | 14% | ▲+5% |
| 8 | EPGRAY IS OKAY | 30-1 | 58-1 | 67.0 | 4% | 11% | ·+3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.