John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R6

PP 7

GRAY IS OKAY

G '23 · THE FACTOR × HONOR AMERICA

Trainer: HABEEB DONALD J · Jockey: MORALES EDGAR

Today's prediction

67.8

Speed fig

16.9%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Field Avg Quirin +0.33
  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.21
  • Weight Change From Last +0.19
  • Distance Change From Last +0.13
  • Speed Fig Trend +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.56
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.97
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.80
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -0.70
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.49

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-03-05 TP 1m Dirt 7 10.5 69 86 3p;bid btw 2nd;fade1/8
2026-01-07 TP 1m Dirt 1 0.3 72 79 2wbtw;3-4p;bid;dueled
2025-11-23 CD 1m Dirt 6 18.8 49 77 Chased 3p btwn; faded
2025-11-09 CD 1.06m Dirt 4 7.0 67 77 Brk out;2w-ins;gave wy
2025-10-08 KEE 1.06m Dirt 2 0.3 70 81 Ins;chsd;stay;bid;miss
2025-08-28 KD 1m Turf 8 14.5 52 76 Bmpd brk;tight;chk1/16
2025-08-09 ELP 1m Turf 6 4.5 70 79 Stdy btw st;stdy 11/16