John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 6

LONGSTRIDER

C '23 · UNION RAGS × LATEST THINKING

Trainer: GARCIA GENARO · Jockey: CARRASCO VICTOR R

Today's prediction

70.7

Speed fig

15.6%

In-the-money

Last 4 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.87
  • Class Par Trend +0.41
  • Num Career Starts +0.39
  • Weight Change From Last +0.24
  • Distance Change From Last +0.14

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -3.54
  • Field Size Change From Last -1.28
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.76
  • Today Field Size -0.68
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.62

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2025-08-10 ELP 7f Dirt 5 15.5 70 91 Chased 2-3w;done early
2025-07-29 IND 6f Dirt 4 6.5 59 3path;no late bid
2025-06-29 CD 6f Dirt 7 17.0 68 90 Inside; outrun
2025-05-09 CD 5f Dirt 1 0.5 70 84 Step slow;3-5w;rallied