Mon, May 25
Race 6
Alw 50000s
Post: 3:18 · 6f · Dirt · $83K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersHot pace
8 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #3 SHANETT (E, QSP 8)
- #7 MADELINE'S PROMISE (E, QSP 8)
- #2 RATIONAL THEORY (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 OUR SHENANIGAN (EP, QSP 6)
- #1 GOOD CALL (EP, QSP 5)
- #4 SPUN CANDY (EP, QSP 3)
- #5 DARING HOPE (EP, QSP 3)
- #8 BOURBON SERENGETI (E, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 2, 6, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$95.32
mean $97.19
Expected ROI
-45.8%
net $-2.75
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [2, 6, 8] — hits 3.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $95 (mean $97; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
2
B Contenders
6, 8, 3
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.3% | $35.38 | -67% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 4.2% | $35.38 | -61% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.2% | $51.36 | -67% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.1% | $39.60 | -68% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 8.8% | $49.23 | -73% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEPRATIONAL THEORY | 2.5-1 | 2.6-1 | 83.8 | 18% | 49% | ▼-23% |
| 6 | BEPOUR SHENANIGAN | 3.5-1 | 3.3-1 | 79.8 | 15% | 44% | ▼-13% |
| 8 | BEBOURBON SERENGETI | 10-1 | 12-1 | 81.1 | 13% | 38% | ▲+14% |
| 3 | BESHANETT | 4.0-1 | 4.6-1 | 81.5 | 12% | 35% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | EPSPUN CANDY | 6.0-1 | 6.7-1 | 81.3 | 11% | 34% | ·-2% |
| 9 | STRANSATLANTIC | 6.0-1 | 4.9-1 | 73.0 | 9% | 27% | ▼-9% |
| 1 | EPGOOD CALL | 10-1 | 13-1 | 76.8 | 8% | 26% | ·+3% |
| 5 | CEPDARING HOPE | 20-1 | 33-1 | 75.7 | 7% | 23% | ▲+11% |
| 7 | EMADELINE'S PROMISE | 15-1 | 19-1 | 71.8 | 7% | 23% | ▲+7% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.