Mon, May 25
Race 8
WnngClrs-G3
Post: 4:22 · 6f · Dirt · $250K purse · 8 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
8 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #5 KAPOOR (E, QSP 8)
- #8 JERSEY PEARL (E, QSP 7)
- #4 SPRING DANCER (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 ONE MAGIC PHILLY (EP, QSP 6)
- #7 USHA (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 7, 6, 5, 8
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.0%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$16.69
mean $25.52
Expected ROI
-83.2%
net $-4.99
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [7, 6, 5, 8] — hits 3.9% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $17 (mean $26; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7
B Contenders
6, 5, 8
C Value-edge longshots
2, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.9% | $17.44 | -87% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 7.4% | $24.85 | -78% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 6.1% | $24.85 | -80% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 7.3% | $16.69 | -85% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 11.1% | $21.26 | -83% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AEPUSHA | 1.4-1 | 0.9-1 | 93.4 | 18% | 50% | ▼-50% |
| 6 | BEPONE MAGIC PHILLY | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 91.6 | 15% | 45% | ▲+8% |
| 5 | BEKAPOOR | 3.0-1 | 2.8-1 | 89.9 | 14% | 42% | ▼-22% |
| 8 | BEJERSEY PEARL | 10-1 | 13-1 | 89.3 | 14% | 40% | ▲+17% |
| 1 | PFOIE GRAS | 5.0-1 | 5.8-1 | 88.9 | 12% | 37% | ▼-5% |
| 3 | SZEITLOS | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 89.2 | 11% | 34% | ▲+6% |
| 4 | CEPSPRING DANCER | 15-1 | 21-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 27% | ▲+11% |
| 2 | CPDARE TO FLY | 20-1 | 34-1 | 84.2 | 8% | 26% | ▲+14% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 8 · Mon, May 25 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.