John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 4

MCILROY

C '22 · HARD SPUN × KITTY WINE

Trainer: SWEEZEY J KENT · Jockey: SAEZ GABRIEL

Today's prediction

77.7

Speed fig

25.1%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.20
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.48
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.39
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.26
  • Distance Change From Last +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.96
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.54
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.24
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.12
  • Field Avg Quirin -0.11

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-28 CD 7f Dirt 2 1.8 74 86 2wbtw;7p upr;repel;bmp
2026-03-28 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 1.8 80 90 4w;bid;led;caught late
2026-02-28 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 9.0 75 88 Btw;ins 3/16;left lead
2026-02-12 TP 1m Dirt 3 4.8 88 86 4p;gain btw;leveld off
2025-11-28 CD 7f Dirt 2 0.1 81 86 5p;8p upr;bid;miss bob
2025-10-22 KEE 6f Dirt 5 7.0 76 90 4-6p;changed lds 7p1/8
2025-09-14 CD 7f Dirt 8 19.0 60 89 Stalk 4p;wknd btw 1/8
2025-06-14 CD 1m Dirt 3 12.5 73 88 Duel ins;fast pc;faded
2025-05-09 CD 1.06m Turf 8 13.8 70 86 Crowdd/steady erly;ins
2025-03-22 TP 1m Dirt 1 2.3 86 84 Lugged in/veered out