John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 13

LUCIUS VERUS

G '22 · VIOLENCE × GRANDACIOUS

Trainer: WEST AARON M · Jockey: CONCEPCION AXEL

Today's prediction

78.8

Speed fig

27.1%

In-the-money

Last 5 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +1.96
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.97
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.94
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.67
  • Num Career Starts +0.23

Pushing prediction down

  • Field Size Change From Last -1.25
  • Today Field Size -1.10
  • Today Post Position -0.38
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.13
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.13

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-12 KEE 6f Dirt 4 13.3 76 95 Saved ground; no avail
2026-02-19 TP 6.5f Dirt 5 8.0 79 92 Bt slw;5-4p;plc bd;yld
2026-01-19 FG 6f Dirt 3 3.3 88 91 Bump st;2p5/16;7p lane
2025-11-10 IND 6f Dirt 1 9.5 92 79 Mild drive;geared down
2025-10-03 KEE 7f Dirt 9 12.5 79 94 Tight early;ins;4p5/16