John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R7

PP 9

LIL MUGGS

G '22 · UPSTART × C ISLANDSURPRISE

Trainer: NAVARRETE ANNA · Jockey: CRISPIN ALEXANDER

Today's prediction

76.5

Speed fig

23.6%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.08
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.90
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last +0.21
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.21
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.13

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.84
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.47
  • Today Post Position -0.38
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.34
  • Num Career Starts -0.14

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-12 IND 6f Dirt 3 5.5 75 90 Stlk3p;bid1/8;faltered
2026-01-08 TP 6f Dirt 9 12.5 73 95 3p;8p upr;no factor
2025-08-21 IND 6f Dirt 7 7.8 75 90 4p;rail stretch;no bid
2025-07-31 IND 6f Dirt 5 9.0 75 90 Awk;saved ground
2025-06-21 CD 6.5f Dirt 9 4.8 84 90 3p upper; leveled off
2025-04-29 CD 6f Dirt 4 2.3 81 95 Vied 2wbtw;dueld;yield
2025-03-14 FG 5.5f Turf 4 8.5 77 87 Trackd 2wbtw;lackd bid
2025-02-08 FG 6f Dirt 3 5.3 83 90 3-5p;lug in;bst of rst
2025-01-11 FG 6f Dirt 2 0.3 84 89 2wbtw;4w;left ld;missd
2024-11-30 CD 1m Dirt 3 4.8 86 85 Track 4p;chasd;left ld