Sun, May 24
Race 7
Clm 20000n2l
Post: 3:51 · 6.5f · Dirt · $49K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #10 COAL FIRED (E, QSP 8)
- #7 MUIR WOODS (E, QSP 7)
- #4 FLYIN PRIVATE (EP, QSP 6)
- #3 RULEROFTHEUNIVERSE (EP, QSP 2)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 5, 3, 9, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$28.20
mean $40.72
Expected ROI
-77.0%
net $-4.62
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [5, 3, 9, 7] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $28 (mean $41; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5, 3
B Contenders
9, 7, 8
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 3.6% | $23.72 | -86% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 5.4% | $39.71 | -67% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.5% | $35.23 | -81% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 7.7% | $49.69 | -67% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 10.3% | $35.23 | -74% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | APROWDY RIOT | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 81.1 | 18% | 49% | ▼-8% |
| 3 | AEPRULEROFTHEUNIVERSE | 2.5-1 | 1.8-1 | 78.3 | 16% | 44% | ▼-29% |
| 9 | BSBIRD THE LEGEND | 4.0-1 | 3.5-1 | 74.8 | 12% | 37% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | BEMUIR WOODS | 6.0-1 | 6.5-1 | 74.9 | 12% | 36% | ·-0% |
| 8 | BPNINETEENFOURTYFIVE | 20-1 | 34-1 | 72.3 | 8% | 26% | ▲+14% |
| 4 | EPFLYIN PRIVATE | 8.0-1 | 8.4-1 | 71.4 | 8% | 26% | ·-2% |
| 6 | PLINEBACKER | 8.0-1 | 8.7-1 | 71.4 | 8% | 25% | ·-3% |
| 2 | PELECTION NIGHT | 15-1 | 25-1 | 70.5 | 7% | 21% | ▲+5% |
| 10 | ECOAL FIRED | 20-1 | 32-1 | 67.1 | 6% | 19% | ▲+6% |
| 1 | PFROSTED BULL | 20-1 | 36-1 | 65.6 | 5% | 17% | ·+5% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 7 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.