Sun, May 24
Race 6
Md Sp Wt
Post: 3:19 · 1.06m · Turf · $120K purse · 16 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
16 runnersHot pace
5 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #1 MUNNINGS TALKS (EP, QSP 5)
- #14 EAT HAY RUN (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 DYNA (EP, QSP 5)
- #9 LAST CURTAIN CALL (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 PRETTY TAPIT (EP, QSP 4)
5 of 16 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 1, 14, 6
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
1.2%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$195.61
mean $208.26
Expected ROI
-59.5%
net $-3.57
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [1, 14, 6] — hits 1.2% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $196 (mean $208; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
14, 6, 11
C Value-edge longshots
—
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 1.1% | $176.79 | -74% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 2.1% | $126.09 | -71% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 2.0% | $100.91 | -79% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 3.2% | $159.81 | -77% |
| 4-horse box | $24.00 | 4.0% | $182.99 | -68% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEPMUNNINGS TALKS | 2.5-1 | 1.9-1 | 82.3 | 13% | 36% | ▼-37% |
| 14 | BEPEAT HAY RUN | 4.0-1 | 4.0-1 | 78.4 | 10% | 30% | ▼-21% |
| 6 | BEPPRETTY TAPIT | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 77.7 | 10% | 28% | ·-0% |
| 11 | BPCORE MEMORIES | 4.0-1 | 4.2-1 | 80.9 | 10% | 28% | ▼-23% |
| 15 | IMMORTALIZE | 3.5-1 | 3.8-1 | 78.2 | 9% | 26% | ▼-31% |
| 3 | EPDYNA | 6.0-1 | 7.2-1 | 77.9 | 7% | 22% | ▼-14% |
| 5 | PMARCINKOWSKI | 20-1 | 36-1 | 76.0 | 6% | 18% | ▲+5% |
| 4 | SEENYMEANYMIGHTYMO | 10-1 | 15-1 | 75.8 | 6% | 17% | ▼-6% |
| 13 | HYPNOTICA | 6.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 71.5 | 5% | 17% | ▼-20% |
| 16 | SMUNDY SWEEP | 8.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 68.6 | 5% | 14% | ▼-14% |
| 9 | EPLAST CURTAIN CALL | 8.0-1 | 11-1 | 70.3 | 5% | 14% | ▼-14% |
| 7 | SWONZEE WEATHER | 15-1 | 38-1 | 73.3 | 4% | 13% | ·-3% |
| 8 | PPATRON SILVER | 20-1 | 39-1 | 67.5 | 4% | 12% | ·-0% |
| 2 | LES | 20-1 | 33-1 | 68.8 | 4% | 11% | ·-1% |
| 10 | ZERO ABSOLUTE | 10-1 | 18-1 | 68.0 | 3% | 9% | ▼-14% |
| 12 | BLACKWING | 30-1 | 65-1 | 57.4 | 2% | 5% | ·-3% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 6 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
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