Sun, May 24
Race 5
Md 30000
Post: 2:46 · 1.06m · Dirt · $57K purse · 10 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
10 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #5 NYQUISTADOR (E, QSP 4)
- #1 GLOBALIST (EP, QSP 3)
2 of 10 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 5, 9, 3
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
3.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$99.65
mean $102.60
Expected ROI
-42.3%
net $-2.54
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [5, 9, 3] — hits 3.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $100 (mean $103; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
5
B Contenders
9, 3, 10
C Value-edge longshots
1
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 3.5% | $50.15 | -70% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 5.0% | $50.15 | -63% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 6.3% | $57.42 | -59% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 6.0% | $57.42 | -63% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 10.4% | $78.22 | -51% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AENYQUISTADOR | 2.5-1 | 1.6-1 | 81.5 | 23% | 59% | ▼-14% |
| 9 | BSLASTING LEGACY | 10-1 | 9.2-1 | 73.9 | 13% | 39% | ▲+16% |
| 3 | BSCIRCUIT BREAKER | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 71.4 | 11% | 33% | ·-3% |
| 10 | BPPRIVATE SHOW | 4.0-1 | 4.1-1 | 71.8 | 11% | 33% | ▼-18% |
| 1 | CEPGLOBALIST | 15-1 | 21-1 | 69.5 | 9% | 28% | ▲+12% |
| 7 | DON'S LAST RIDE | 4.5-1 | 4.1-1 | 65.0 | 9% | 28% | ▼-19% |
| 8 | PSURFIN' M | 6.0-1 | 9.1-1 | 68.3 | 8% | 26% | ▼-10% |
| 4 | PTREGETOUR | 12-1 | 18-1 | 68.2 | 8% | 24% | ·+5% |
| 6 | PSTOIC SAGE | 20-1 | 36-1 | 65.7 | 6% | 19% | ▲+7% |
| 2 | PAY HEED | 20-1 | 31-1 | 59.5 | 3% | 11% | ·-1% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 5 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.