John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 8

SURFIN' M

C '22 · TAKE CHARGE INDY × SNAGGLEPUSS

Trainer: SHORTER AARON · Jockey: GUTIERREZ MARIO

Today's prediction

68.3

Speed fig

26.1%

In-the-money

Last 9 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Last Speed Fig +0.36
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 +0.35
  • Max Speed Fig Career +0.22
  • Trainer Meet Starts Log +0.12
  • Speed Fig Consistency +0.09

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.21
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.08
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -0.94
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 -0.81
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -0.64

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-25 OP 1m Dirt 2 1.8 77 78 Stalk 4-3p; ran on plc
2026-04-12 OP 1.06m Dirt 7 21.8 65 84 Prompted1st;ins;weaken
2025-06-27 DEL 1.04m Turf 8 20.0 51 71 Bmpst; ins; retreat1/2
2025-05-31 DEL 1.04m Dirt 2 2.5 70 71 Ins; 3wbid; no close
2025-04-18 OP 1.06m Dirt 3 10.0 63 81 Fell back; rebid 3rd
2025-02-16 OP 1.06m Dirt 11 51.5 26 80 Bump start;jogged in
2025-01-19 OP 1.06m Dirt 3 2.8 74 81 4w turns; best rest
2024-12-15 OP 1.06m Dirt 7 26.0 51 83 Pressed btwn;gave way
2024-10-11 KEE 1.06m Dirt 3 1.3 68 84 Urgd 2-3w;5p3/16;rally