Sun, May 24
Race 4
Md Sp Wt
Post: 2:14 · 1m · Dirt · $92K purse · 9 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
9 runnersContested pace
2 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #8 THE HUND (P, QSP 8)
- #9 QUARRY (EP, QSP 5)
- #7 DIAMOND EYED JACK (EP, QSP 4)
1 of 9 runners have no BRIS run-style code (often first-time starters); narrative may understate the true pace.
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 1, 2, 9, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
5.7%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$40.69
mean $46.07
Expected ROI
-56.6%
net $-3.40
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [1, 2, 9, 7] — hits 5.6% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $41 (mean $46; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
1
B Contenders
2, 9, 7
C Value-edge longshots
8
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 5.3% | $41.07 | -60% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 7.9% | $40.69 | -49% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 10.0% | $42.78 | -43% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 9.7% | $42.78 | -51% |
| 2×5×5 part wheel | $24.00 | 16.8% | $59.19 | -35% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ASASHEVILLE | 2.5-1 | 1.6-1 | 84.9 | 25% | 63% | ▼-10% |
| 2 | BSNEIGH BABY | 8.0-1 | 6.0-1 | 81.0 | 16% | 47% | ▲+18% |
| 9 | BEPQUARRY | 3.5-1 | 3.1-1 | 79.7 | 12% | 38% | ▼-19% |
| 7 | BEPDIAMOND EYED JACK | 6.0-1 | 6.3-1 | 76.1 | 12% | 37% | ·+0% |
| 8 | CPTHE HUND | 15-1 | 16-1 | 79.2 | 10% | 32% | ▲+17% |
| 4 | SFLICK | 4.5-1 | 4.6-1 | 81.1 | 10% | 31% | ▼-15% |
| 5 | PDIXIE DEVIL | 12-1 | 16-1 | 76.9 | 8% | 26% | ▲+6% |
| 3 | RUGGED LOVE | 6.0-1 | 6.6-1 | 68.4 | 5% | 18% | ▼-18% |
| 6 | SHE HAS GAME | 15-1 | 32-1 | 58.9 | 2% | 8% | ▼-8% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 4 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.