John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R5

PP 7

DON'S LAST RIDE

g '23 · CANDY RIDE × GETMOTHERAROSE

Trainer: SHARP JOE · Jockey: ORTIZ IRAD JR

Today's prediction

65.0

Speed fig

27.8%

In-the-money

Last 2 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Mean Late Pace Last 5 +0.29
  • Trainer Meet Itm Rate +0.19
  • Jockey Meet Win Rate +0.18
  • Days Since Last Race +0.16
  • Today Track Code +0.15

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -4.72
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean -1.75
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 -1.52
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 -1.11
  • Distance Change From Last -1.10

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-10 KEE 6.5f Dirt 9 26.8 39 86 Chased 2p;faltered btw
2026-02-21 TP 6.5f Dirt 8 17.5 58 84 3w;chased 2p-ins;faded