Sun, May 24
Race 3
Clm 50000
Post: 1:44 · 5f · Turf · $86K purse · 11 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
11 runnersHot pace
7 early types pressing for the lead — expect a fast pace, favors closers (P/S).
Projected speed
- #7 NASTY HABIT (EP, QSP 7)
- #6 GARDINER (EP, QSP 7)
- #9 MISTER MMMMM (E, QSP 7)
- #11 CAN'T DENY IT (EP, QSP 5)
- #3 CHISELER (E, QSP 5)
- #5 SAINT IN THE CITY (EP, QSP 1)
- #2 ALDER (EP, QSP 0)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts 10, 11, 2, 7
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
2.3%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$70.01
mean $99.78
Expected ROI
-61.1%
net $-3.66
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 1×3×3 key (top pick) on posts [10, 11, 2, 7] — hits 2.3% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $70 (mean $100; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
10
B Contenders
11, 2, 7
C Value-edge longshots
5
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-horse box | $6.00 | 2.3% | $90.67 | -63% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $9.00 | 3.0% | $81.30 | -55% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 4.4% | $70.01 | -68% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 4.3% | $52.45 | -69% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 6.3% | $81.30 | -65% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | APLET MY PEOPLE GO | 3.5-1 | 3.0-1 | 87.2 | 16% | 45% | ▼-12% |
| 11 | BEPCAN'T DENY IT | 2.5-1 | 1.8-1 | 86.7 | 13% | 38% | ▼-34% |
| 2 | BEPALDER | 15-1 | 13-1 | 85.2 | 12% | 34% | ▲+18% |
| 7 | BEPNASTY HABIT | 8.0-1 | 8.0-1 | 84.0 | 11% | 33% | ·+5% |
| 8 | SANTARES | 4.5-1 | 4.5-1 | 81.5 | 10% | 31% | ▼-15% |
| 4 | PBOLTAGE | 10-1 | 13-1 | 81.3 | 8% | 25% | ·+2% |
| 6 | EPGARDINER | 10-1 | 9.5-1 | 80.2 | 8% | 25% | ·+2% |
| 5 | CEPSAINT IN THE CITY | 30-1 | 33-1 | 81.0 | 7% | 23% | ▲+15% |
| 3 | ECHISELER | 15-1 | 12-1 | 78.8 | 7% | 21% | ▲+5% |
| 1 | PB D VALESKI | 12-1 | 15-1 | 77.9 | 5% | 18% | ·-2% |
| 9 | EMISTER MMMMM | 15-1 | 26-1 | 63.8 | 2% | 7% | ▼-9% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 3 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.