John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 1

B D VALESKI

G '19 · MARK VALESKI × KEEP THE SOURCE

Trainer: FOLEY GREG · Jockey: BESCHIZZA ADAM

Today's prediction

77.9

Speed fig

17.5%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.25
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.85
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.67
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 5 +0.46
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.31

Pushing prediction down

  • BRIS Prime Power -2.05
  • Field Size Change From Last -0.41
  • Mean Pace 4f Last 5 -0.19
  • Mean Pace 2f Last 5 -0.17
  • Num Career Starts -0.17

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-04-28 CD 5f Turf 4 5.5 81 91 Trck 2-4w;even;left ld
2026-03-19 TP 6.5f Dirt 3 5.8 80 86 2wbtw;4p3/16;duel show
2025-09-08 IND 5f Turf 5 4.8 73 92 2p;bid late btw foes
2025-06-27 CD 5.5f Turf 6 4.3 87 91 2p into lane;flattened
2025-06-04 CD 5.5f Turf 7 3.0 86 91 3wd;6p upr;evenly
2025-04-30 CD 5f Turf 4 2.8 87 90 Stdy 7/16;8p upr;rally
2025-03-15 TP 6.5f Dirt 4 9.3 83 91 No speed; evenly along
2025-02-23 TP 6.5f Dirt 6 26.0 53 91 Brief speed; stopped
2024-12-21 TP 6f Dirt 1 0.8 86 86 Rallied along in time
2024-11-15 CD 5f Turf 3 1.5 91 90 2p;8wd upr;rallied btw