John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 11

CAN'T DENY IT

G '22 · JUSTIFY × MOTH

Trainer: RIVELLI LARRY · Jockey: LOVEBERRY JARETH

Today's prediction

86.7

Speed fig

38.4%

In-the-money

Last 7 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +6.45
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +1.16
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +1.05
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +0.98
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.72

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Post Position -0.35
  • Days Since Last Race -0.24
  • Today Field Size -0.23
  • Jockey Meet Itm Rate -0.16
  • Speed Fig At Today Track Last -0.15

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-02-14 TAM 5f Turf 10 7.8 80 94 Inside;5p;empty
2026-01-17 FG 5.5f Turf 8 7.0 84 95 Track4w; retreated
2025-10-09 KEE 5.5f Turf 1 1.8 96 Spurted clear;held swy
2025-03-14 FG 5.5f Turf 1 6.3 92 87 Clear 3p;widend;drivng
2025-02-17 FG 1.06m Dirt 5 23.8 66 89 Close up ins; wknd 2nd
2025-01-18 TP 1m Dirt 8 20.0 61 88 Chased 1/2 gave in
2024-12-19 FG 5.5f Turf 1 2.5 86 79 2wd-3p;bid;drove clear