John-Z's Overlay · Trifecta ATM
← Churchill Downs R3

PP 2

ALDER

G '21 · HARD SPUN × ARBOL

Trainer: JACOBSON DAVID · Jockey: GAFFALIONE TYLER

Today's prediction

85.2

Speed fig

34.3%

In-the-money

Last 10 races

Why this prediction?

Base prediction: 76.4 fig points

Pushing prediction up

  • BRIS Prime Power +4.80
  • Mean Class Par Last 5 +1.57
  • Speed Fig On Todays Surface Mean +0.99
  • Trouble Adjusted Speed Fig Last 5 +0.70
  • Mean Speed Fig Last 3 +0.66

Pushing prediction down

  • Today Field Size -0.28
  • Speed Fig Consistency -0.27
  • Num Career Starts -0.24
  • Last Finish Pos -0.14
  • Class Par Trend -0.12

Past performances

Date Track Dist Sfx Fin Beat Fig Class Comment
2026-05-07 CD 1m Turf 8 6.5 82 92 Tug 4-3w;4-6w1/4;faded
2026-04-26 CD 5.5f Turf 7 3.8 83 94 Tight early;3-4w;6w1/4
2026-02-18 TP 6.5f Dirt 7 11.5 81 95 Ins;vied shw;faded btw
2025-12-19 OP 6f Dirt 5 6.3 82 94 Rated 4-5p; evenly str
2025-11-06 CD 6f Dirt 5 5.0 85 95 2w;shift 6p3/16;no bid
2025-10-04 BAQ 6f Turf 1 1.3 96 93 8w upper; edged away
2025-08-31 KD 1m Turf 5 6.8 86 91 Chase 4-5w;came in 1/8
2025-07-05 ELP 1m Turf 3 1.0 87 91 3-2w;vied;led;yielded
2025-05-25 CD 1m Turf 3 6.5 85 91 Mid mve2w;btwn1/4;wknd
2025-05-04 BAQ 6f Turf 5 2.3 88 89 Lunge st; outkicked