Sun, May 24
Race 2
Clm 32000
Post: 1:15 · 1m · Dirt · $71K purse · 7 runners
New — Ask Claude Opus about this race Why a horse rates the way it does, what the trifecta ticket means, where the public might be wrong.Pace shape
7 runnersContested pace
4 early types — pace should be honest but not crazy. No strong style bias.
Projected speed
- #2 EVENING NEWS (E, QSP 8)
- #3 BIG CITY (EP, QSP 5)
- #6 REAL MACHO (EP, QSP 4)
- #5 CLASSIC LEGACY (EP, QSP 3)
Trifecta shape
Wide openLottery shape — low hit rates, larger payouts when they cash. Entertainment-only; the model is not confident in any structure.
3-horse box on posts 7, 5, 1
The model's most-likely-to-cash structure (informational — not a bet recommendation).
Cost
$6.00
6 combos
Hit prob
4.4%
simulated
Typical payout if hit
$62.64
mean $67.96
Expected ROI
-50.6%
net $-3.04
- · Most-likely-to-cash structure: 3-horse box on posts [7, 5, 1] — hits 4.4% of simulated runs
- · At $6 stake, a typical cash pays ≈ $63 (mean $68; trifecta payoffs are heavy-tailed). Estimated from the public pool, validated against archive payoffs.
- · Wide-open shape — anyone could hit; longshots have room.
A Top picks
7
B Contenders
5, 1, 3
C Value-edge longshots
2, 4
Other ticket structures (5)
| Ticket | Cost | Hit prob | Typical payout | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1×3×3 key (top pick) | $6.00 | 4.5% | $49.43 | -67% |
| A key, B in 2nd, A+B+C in 3rd | $12.00 | 8.2% | $49.43 | -59% |
| 2×4×4 part wheel | $12.00 | 8.3% | $49.43 | -65% |
| 1×4×4 key (top pick) | $12.00 | 8.7% | $30.50 | -73% |
| 1×5×5 key (top pick) | $20.00 | 13.7% | $45.85 | -70% |
Hit prob is the model's per-race PL distribution. "Typical payout" is the median cash, weighted by the public pool's odds (not the model's own picks) and calibrated to actual historical trifecta payoffs — so it reflects what the tote really pays, not the model's disagreement. Walk-forward backtests show pari-mutuel takeout (~16-26%) is too steep to consistently clear at this data scale — these are tipsheet outputs, not bet recommendations.
Field
↳ Click any horse name for the per-horse breakdown (last-10-races chart, SHAP feature contributions, full PP table).
| PP | Horse | ML | Pred Close | Pred Fig | Win | ITM% ↓ | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | ASSYSTEMIC CHANGE | 2.5-1 | 2.4-1 | 86.5 | 19% | 53% | ▼-20% |
| 5 | BEPCLASSIC LEGACY | 4.0-1 | 3.9-1 | 83.3 | 15% | 45% | ▼-6% |
| 1 | BPNOTARY | 6.0-1 | 7.0-1 | 84.2 | 14% | 44% | ▲+7% |
| 3 | BEPBIG CITY | 3.0-1 | 3.4-1 | 84.8 | 14% | 43% | ▼-20% |
| 6 | EPREAL MACHO | 3.5-1 | 3.2-1 | 79.8 | 13% | 41% | ▼-16% |
| 4 | CPCURLIN'S GESTURE | 8.0-1 | 6.8-1 | 81.3 | 13% | 39% | ▲+11% |
| 2 | CEEVENING NEWS | 20-1 | 26-1 | 81.9 | 11% | 36% | ▲+23% |
Sort the table by clicking column headers. Edge = our predicted ITM% minus the public-implied ITM% (live odds when present, ML otherwise); green ▲ ≥ +5pp, red ▼ ≤ −5pp. See How to Use for the math.
Ask Claude Opus
Questions about the model's predictions for Race 2 · Sun, May 24 · Churchill Downs. Powered by Claude Opus 4.7.
Ask anything about the field, the trifecta ticket, or why the model rates a horse the way it does.
Limited to 30 questions per day per visitor. Answers are model-generated and may be incorrect — not betting advice.